The excitement is high, everything is fresh, and minds are wondering what the 2013 season will hold.(see 2013 Preview). The Australian Open has been considered the party down under because of its great atmosphere and early season enthusiasm. As laid back as it can seem, it definitely packs a serious punch as it will set the blueprint for the rest of the year. Let's do what we usually do, taking the top four players and analyzing their chances to bring the title home...
#1 Novak Djokovic
The defending champ, Novak comes off a solid 2012. He captured the first big tournament off 2012, the Aussie Open, and the last one, Barclays. Along the way, Novak regained his #1 ranking. He is a man on a mission looking to improve on 2012 with the hope to replicate 2011. His road to the semis looks pretty pedestrian which has Novak licking his chops. 1st round
Paul-Henri Mathieu provides to be no challenge to Novak. With a 4-1 h-2-h record against the Frenchman, and Novak's only loss on carpet, expect a quick match for the Serb.
2nd round
This match will be interesting for the American fan base. Ryan Harrison is looking to make a BIG splash. The young-gun just took out John Isner in Sydney and will be looking to bring that momentum into the AO. Expect a couple of tight sets, maybe even Ryan stretching it to four, but at the end, experience and skill should come on top. Definitely a good match for Novak to put on his belt for the next round.
3rd round
The crafty, veteran Stepanek will be bounced out quickly by Djoko. Novak has a 7-1 h-2-h record and has nothing to worry with the lack of weapons that Stepanek brings to the table. If this match was played on a much faster court, the chance of an upset would go from 0% to 10%. Just too much firepower from the Serb and not enough in the arsenal from the Czech.
Round of 16
Then next round should provide more experience, but the same result. Stan Wawrinka is a mere 2-11 h-2-h against Novak. With the other Swiss looking to regain the #1 ranking, Stan will be motivated to take out Nole. There should be some good points, but at the end of the day, Novak will be too much for the number 2 Swiss.
Quaterfinals
Now we will see Djoko tested. Expect a matchup against Tomas Berdych. If Berdych can take out Djokovic, he will put himself in a great position to possibly take home a Grand Slam title. The opportunity of Nadal out of the tournament and Murray-Federer beating themselves up on the other side of the draw can really motivate the big man. His record against Novak is not very good, 1-11 h-2-h, but this could be a match for the ages. Expect an exciting much, but the world number 1 should come out on top.
#2 Roger Federer
Roger's story will be interesting in 2013. The AO will give us an indication of what the mindset of he greatest player ever is coming into this year. He accomplished what he set to do in 2012 by winning Wimbledon and recapturing the #1 ranking, eclipsing Pete Sampras's record of #286 weeks at number 1. Will Roger look to regain the top spot on tour again? Will he push to recapture the title down under? The AO 2013 will be a clear indication of what the Maestro plans to do. This is his road to the semis...1st round
Federer really takes care of business early at Grand Slams. This should not be any different. Benoit Paire must have dreaded seeing his name next to Roger's.
2nd round
Federer should play Davydenko in the second round. Davydenko has looked fit and has played well, already upsetting a top 10 player in David Ferrer earlier this year. Federer has a 17-2 record and should have a good workout before his third round match, but an upset is not in the cards.
3rd round
Federer will be looking to give the young Aussie Bernard Tomic a lesson of many sorts. This troubled kid had a tough 2012 with off-court issues. He is looking to make it back into the good graces of fans and get his game going. Federer will be able to handle whatever Tomic throws at him and should move on.
Round of 16
Federer will have a big challenge here. Milos Raonic has been close in the three times he has played the Swiss. Even though he has not come on top, he has played Roger in every surface taking one set from him each time. Roger should be tested with a couple of sets going to tie-breakers. An upset might be brewing, but Roger has not lost on the Round of 16 or prior since 2004, don't expect it here.
Quarterfinal
Roger will be glad to get out of a tough round of 16 match up against Milos Raonic. He will be looking to play a good friend in Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Fed's 8-3 record should be enough to carry him against this top talent. It is always a battle against the Frenchman, but Federer should come out of this match on top.
#3 Andy Murray
If there is a hungry player out there it should be Andy Murray. The Scot, tasted gold at the Olympics and major success by winning at the US Open. Rafael Nadal is still out with a knee injury, he has beaten Roger at the finals of the Olympics and has taken down Dokovic in the finals of the US Open. Murray has to be feeling as this is the year where he makes the move towards the top of the ladder in the rankings. His first test will be down under where he has come close before. His road to the semis...1st round
Murray makes his 2013 debut against Robin Haase. The Dutch player has taken a match from Andy, but that was in 2008. Five years later, with a gold medal and a major, Murray should know how to take care of business early at the Grand Slams.
2nd round
Murray will have his shot at either Joao Sousa of Portugal or home player John-Patrick Smith. Whomever he plays against should have their suitcase packed and ready to go to the next tournament after this encounter.
3rd round
Florian Mayer is an establish player on the tour and could give Andy a bit of trouble. Just as his previous match, expect a quick one as the Scot brings new found confidence into 2013.
Round of 16
Alex Dolgopolov is fun to watch, but has no real big weapon to threaten Murray. His grit and consistency can be matched by the world's number 3 just fine and Murray's backhand along with return game should provide a match up that doesn't favor the crafty Ukrainian.
Quarterfinal
Murray will definitely be tested here. Juan Martin Del Potro had his most successful year in 2012 since his Grand Slam year of 2009. Murray will look to avoid the jinx Del Potro acquired after winning his 2009 US Open. Expect a tough match with Andy barely scraping through.
#4 David Ferrer
David Ferrer has found himself as the top ranked Spaniard. He carried Spain to the 2012 Davis Cup and has proven that he can bare the Spanish flag without Rafa Nadal. His 2013 has started a bit shaky, but Ferrer is looking to get back to his 2012 form. Could he finally break through winning a Grand Slam?1st Round
Ferrer will take on another player well below 6' in Oliver Rochus. Oliver has no real weapon that can threaten the Spaniard. Expect some good rallies with Ferrer using this match to find a good rhythm for the rest of the tournament. Three solid sets for Ferrer.
2nd Round
Ferrer goes from the shortest player on tour, to the tallest. Dr. Ivo should be his next opponent. Karlovic brings a big serve to the table that can pose some problems for Ferrer. One big weapon will not do it against the feisty Spaniard. Sets should be tight, with a couple going to tie-break, but Ferrer should move in three sets.
Maybe it has been marriage or a new child into the world, Marcos Baghdatis has been playing well at the beginning of 2013. This party boy is looking to settle his ways on and off the court. Ferrer has been a bit unstable on the early stages this year providing a small window for the Cypriot to come on top. This should be a great match for the fans, but the result should be expected; Ferrer in 4.
Round of 16
Now this match is a tough one to pic. On paper, without looking at their h-2-h, it would be easy to pick David Ferrer over Kei Nishikori. Once you start looking at the three matches they have played, the prediction can be easily swayed. The Japanese superstar has taken out David Ferrer in the two Grand Slam matches they have played. With the AO being the Asia/Pacific major, Nishikori could be looking to make a huge mark in his "home" major. Could this be it?! Kei will be motivated and Ferrer will be tested, but this will be the major that Ferrer gets the best of Nishikori. Maybe the best match of the tournament.
Quarterfinals
Now this might be the easiest match to pick in the tournament. Almagro could be facing his countryman in this round. Ferrer holds a 12-0 h-2-h record against Nico. This match should be no contest. To give Nico some hope, Verdasco was 0-12 against his countryman Nadal before upsetting him last year in Madrid. Could we have the same down under? The courts will be blue as they were in Madrid, but they will not be clay. Ferrer to the semis.
Semifinals
Novak-Djokovic vs David Ferrer
The top seeded player Djokovic, should face Ferrer in the semis. Even though Novak has had a difficult times against Ferrer, he does hold a 9-5 h-2-h. If this match were to take place back in 2009 or before, I would have picked the Spaniard. Now that Djokovic's fitness is at the top of the game, expect Nole to bring too much game for the gritty Ferrer.
Roger Federer vs Andy Murray
The tougher of the semifinals will be found with Federer and Murray. Murray seemed to really have Roger's number at the end of 2012 as he took him down to win the Olympic gold at Wimbledon and then later on at the Shanghai Masters 1000. Roger made sure this wasn't the case beating up on Andy at the Year Ending Championships in London. This will be an entertaining match to see where both men really are and where they will go in 2013. Expect Roger to even up their career head-to-head at 10 a piece.
Finals
Novak Djokovic vs Roger Federer
Roger has been waiting to play Djokovic in the finals of a Grand Slam for a long time. The only previous encounter was at the 2007 US Open where Fed came out on top. The other Grand Slam encounters have all taken place in the semis of before. Fed has a lot to prove showing the world he is still the number one player. Djokovic also comes here with much to prove. To keep Fed away from that number one ranking he must beat him here. He is looking to also show the world that Fed's time is up and that Nole is here to stay. This match should be one of the best of the tournament with both men really wanting to sink their teeth into the 2013 Grand Slam season.
Prediction: Federer in 5
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