To the Smurf Village! Madrid Preview

Enough about the blue clay, let's get to the actual play!  Let's preview the top 4 players and their road to hosting up the trophy in Madrid.


#1 Novak Djokovic





Djokovic's year started with a huge high in winning The Australian Open, but has cooled off a bit.  A loss at Indian wells to John Isner and a loss in Rome to Rafael Nadal (tough circumstances w/ his grandfather passing away) have dinged the armor of the unbeatable #1.  He can get some of that aura back by going through atough draw.  Here are some possible match-ups for the Serb.



Stan Wawrinka should be waiting for Nole in the Rd 16.  Stan is coming off a good result in Munich making the semis (l. to Del Portro) and should be playing well.  Should be a well played match but with a 9-2 head-to-head record in favor of Nole and with Stan not winning since 2006, I see the world #1 moving on to the next round.

Gilles Simon could be waiting for Nole in the quarterfinals (that's if he gets throught Tipsarevic first).  Another hot player who is back smelling the top 10, could pose some problems for the Djoker.  This will be the first time these two play on clay which will be interesting.  With a head-to-had record in favor of Nole, this should be another good tune up for  Djokovic's next match.

Roger Federer could face Djoko in the semifinals.  I will preview that match later as it should be the best one before the final.  Look under Federer's draw preview.


#2 Rafael Nadal

Rafael Nadal has not been more vocal of any tournament in his life than this one.  He has been angry with the tournament owner, the ATP, and of course, the surface.  His beloved red clay has been transformed to a blue mirage and the world #2 is not happy.  His draw is a tricky one as he will face grinders and power players.

Nikolay Davydenko is always a handful for any ATP player, but surprisingly, to Rafa Nadal.  Davydenko is one of a few players on the ATP tour who has a winning record against the clay master (6-4 h-2-h).  In fact, the former world top 5 player has won the last 4 matches against Rafa.  I expect a tight first match for Nadal with a fired up Russian on the other side, but even though Davydenko has had his way with Rafa for the most part, he has never been him on clay, not even the blue stuff.

Verdasco 0---Nadal 13.  Need I say more?!

Berdych hasnt' beat Rafa since 2006.  Also, the last two times they have played on clay, Rafa has taken a set in each match at Love.  Don't expect much love for Berdych in this one.  Rafa should move on rather easy.

Del Potro or Tsonga will face Rafa in the Semis.  I expect that it will be the Argentine and will preview the reasons why it will be Del Po meeting Rafa under Tsonga's preview.  Del Po has had some good results against Rafa in the past but he hasn't beaten him since the '09 US Open.  Rafa should move on to the finals.


#3 Roger Federer

Roger is coming of some rest and should be fresh.  He will be enjoying a low bounce blue clay court along with the higher altitude which will allow the ball to travel faster on the court.

Milos Raonic could be the opening round of opponent for the 16 time grand Slam title winner.  Raonic has been playing well winning 2 titles this year along with over 20 matches.  Even though he can be trouble, Fed should move on pretty easy as the match will be on clay and he is just a better player.

The next match will most likely be against Troicki or Gasquet who have not done much against Federer.  Should be a routine match for Fed.

David Ferrer is looking to move back up the rankings as he sits #6 in the world to Tsonga, but facing Fed in the quarterfinals will bring his tournament to a close.  A 12-0 head-to-head record in favor of the Swiss says it all.

Novak Djokovic is the #1 player in the world, but his level has dropped just a bit from the close-to-perfection game he had last year.  The player to beat him and to stop his unbeaten streak was that of Roger Federer at Roland Garros.  Federer will feed off that win, the motivation of taking a step in recapturing the world #1 ranking (which he wants badly), and winning another Masters 100 event.  Expect him to move on to the final versus Nadal.


#4 Jo Willie-Tsonga

Ryan Harrison is America's next superstar, but only a monumental effort will due to have a chance against the world #5.  Expect Tsonga to move on with a challenge, but nothing too threatening.

Alexandr Dolgopolov is always a tricky player and has a 2-2 head-to-head record versus the Frenchman.  Every match has been very close, but it seems as Tsonga has figured out the enigma who is Dolgopolov.  Every match played has been just a bit easier for Tsonga than the one before.  Expect Tsonga to pull a close one out.

Juan Martin Del Potro will put the breaks on the French train.  With a 5-1 head-to-head record, Del Potro should move on with a bit of a challenge.  His game matches well against the hard hitting Tsonga.  The 4th seed will fall in the quaters.


Finals Preview
I expect Rafa-Federer Round 19 to be an exciting one.  We have never seen a final of these two giants on blue clay and, if the tennis gods are fair, we should be getting one.  Federer should be feeling confident as he does have a 2-1 head-to-head against Rafa in the past 3 matches.  He is also coming off rest and this will be Rafa's third straight tournament with a fourth on the horizon.  With a faster ball , because of the altitude in Madrid, and a lower bounce Federer will have a better chance at upsetting the King of Clay.  Expect a tight match, but I do see the upset of the tournament here; Federer champion of Madrid!