French Open Time! Rafa is looking to win his seventh. Djokovic is on path to hold all four Slams at the same time. Federer is looking as he is ready to reclaim the #1 ranking again, Murray, well, poor Andy might as well take the tournament off. Let's take a look at the top four players and their chances at the title...
#1 Novak Djokovic
Nole is coming off a strong start to the year. After all, he does have the only Grand Slam under his belt, the Aussie Open. Coming into the French, Nole is looking to win the tournament and hold all four slams; something that hasn't been done since the great Rod Laver won all 4 in a row. The biggest challenge he has coming is Rafael Nadal. Not only has Rafa won 6 titles here, he has only lost 1 match, which was to Robin Soderling in 2009. Another thing, Nole has lost to Nadal twice this year, Monte Carlo and Rome, something he didn't do at all last year. Even though Djokovic is the number 1 seed at Roland Garros, he must feel as he is the number 2 looking up at Nadal. Before he even gets to face Nadal, he has to get through his draw which is no easy task. This is his preview before the semifinals...
Nole won't find a real challenge until later on in the tournament, but a possible match up with Lleyton Hewitt does merit some conversation. Not because of their past history, head-2-head in favor of Djoko 5-1(only win for Hewitt 2006 US open), but rather because these are two grand slam champions. Hewitt is now on his last leg of a Hall of Fame career and this can be dangerous. He can grind it out still and should produce some good tennis against Djokovic, but it won't last long. I see this match as 2 semi-competitive sets and a blow out in the third. Expect Djoko moving on in 3.
Jurgen Melzer could be waiting for Djokovic in the 3rd round. The Djokor does have a 2-1 h-2-h record over Melzer, but the last time they faced each other was at the 2010 French where Melzer came back from 2 sets down to win the match. Since then, Melzer has been very up and down. Expect Djokovic to be motivated by that loss and ready to hand Melzer a beat down!
The Round of 16 could and could not produce a challenge for the Serb. Andreas Seppi is fun to mention here as he has been on a roll, but most likely it will be Fernando Verdasco. If it is Seppi, expect as easy match for Djokovic. If Verdasco comes out, expect a dogfight as Djoko only has a 5-4 h-2h advangtage over the Spaniard. Out of 5 matches on clay Verdasco has won 3 of them including the last two. Verdasco is also coming off a good clay season where he finally got the Rafa monkey off his back, winning for the first time in 14 matches. Expect Djoko to come out of this one, but this will be the first true body blow to his chances as the road ahead only becomes tougher.
A number of players can come out of this quarter to face Djokovic. Tsonga Wawrinka, and Troicki are all capable players and they can all create some chaos. Let's focus on Tsonga, as he is the most viable opponent and probably the most dangerous. Nole and Jo-Wilfried have a 5-5 h-2-h, but Djokovic did take the last meeting in Rome winning 7-5, 6-1. The first set was very competitive, but the second got away from the Frenchman who at times looked lost on the court. Expect Jo-Wilie to come out playing well and really giving the world number 1 a run for his money. I call a tight match, with Novak winning in 4 close sets.
#2 Rafael Nadal
I am not a betting man, but I would bet my house on Nadal making the finals. Barring any injury to Rafa, he should punch his ticket to the final match and be ready to play for a 7th French Open crown. Let's take a look at some of his sparring partners until then.
Rafa's 3rd round opponent could be Florian Mayer who has a 1-1 h-2-h with Rafa. Throw that win out the window, as Rafa won their last meeting in Rome a week ago. Also, both men are at the French Open, Rafa's home, enough said!.
The King of Clay could get some hot players in the next round with Milos Raonic or Juan Monaco possibly being Nadal's opponents in the Round of 16. Rafa has a 2-0 h-2-h record against Raonic, but they have not played on a clay court, both meetings in Japan's hard courts. This doesn't vote well for Raonic as the clay will only hurt his game and add to Rafa's. Against Monaco, Rafa has a 3-0 h-2-h record on clay and 4-1 overall. The total number of games that Monaco has won in their 7 sets of play has been 10. That's an average of 1.43 per set, ARE YOU SERIOUS?! Next!!!
In the quarters, Tipsarevic or Almagro could be waiting for the 6 time champ. Both of these solid players have not been a match for Rafa and won't be here as well. Almagro has never beat the world's number 2 and Tipsarevic hasnt' even won a set off the King of Clay. Not a bad looking draw for Rafa. In the semis, don't expect the injured Scot to be there, which will make Rafa's way to the finals even that much easier. I would not be surprised if we see Rafa not drop a set until the final match.
#3 Roger Federer
Roger was hot and will try to get back to that level here at Roland Garros. He has been able to win four titles this year, more than Djokovic and Nadal, but his streak was stopped in Rome by the world's #1. Federer looked frazzled for most of the match with his backhand eluding him until the final couple of games. By then it was too late. Expect Roger to bounce back in a big way here.
Roger's Draw is pretty favorable as well. He could encounter David Nalbandian in the second round. Their h-2-h history is in favor of Roger with a 11-8 edge. Nalbandian hasn't won since 2007 and hasn't done much damage to Roger since early in Fed's career. Expect Roger, who is playing well, to move on easily.
This doesn't look good for Andy Roddick whatsoever. Poor guy has been injured this season and now has to possibly face Roger in the third round. Even though Roddick won their last meeting just a couple of months ago in Miami, Fed has a 21-3 h-2-h record and hasn't lost on clay to the American. Expect a swift beating by Roger putting him in the next round.
Possible match up against Feliciano Lopez here in the Round of 16. Fed has a 10-0 h-2-h advantage, NEXT.....
Now we are starting to get somewhere. Berdych has being playing lights out this clay court season surprising many. He took down Juan Martin Del Potro, another contender to face Fed in the Quarters, in Madrid. It will be a good match, but Fed did take out Berdych in the same Madrid tournament. Expect the same here. Fed to the semis.
#4 Andy Murray
Jarkko Nieminen could be waiting for Murray in the 2nd round. Murray has a 3-0 h-2-h record over Nieminen. Also, they have never played on clay. I expect Murray to make it through in 4 sets. Putting some more miles on that back.
Two Colombians will face each other in the first round with one of them having the possibility of playing Murray in the 3rd. Veteran Alejandro Falla and Santiago Giraldo are two guys that know the clay well and could hurt Andy even more. If they do not make it, expect Bernard Tomic to face Andy. This crafty Aussie, could really make his big splash here taking out the 4th seed. A bigger splash than driving too fast on the Aussie roads.
After a couple of body blows by the featherweights now comes the heavy weights. Alexandr Dolgopolov, "The Dog", should be waiting for Murray in the Round of 16. With the variety in his game, he will test Murray and his back quite a bit. Even though it is a 3-0 h-2-h record in favor of Murray, expect a long drawn out match that Murray might not survive.
If Murray gets past The Dog, don't expect him to go any further. David Ferrer most likely will be waiting for him. There's a chance, an outside chance, that John Isner could instead; can't overlook the big guy with the big serve. Andy Murray has a 5-4 edge over Ferrer in their h-2h, but he has never beat Ferrer on clay (0-3 record). Expect the Spaniard to move on as he is motivated to reclaim the #5 spot in the world, which he could do here.
The Semis
Federer- Djokovic
1) Revenge!
Fed was the first to put a dent in the almost impermeable armor of Djoko last year. Expect Djoko to come out extremely motivated2) Hold off Rafa & Fed
It doesn't seem like it, but the ranking are only getting tighter. Rafa with a win here will again be looking to overtake Djokovic soon and Federer has made his intentions known that he wants to be the world's number 1 player
Expect a well played match, with the scoreboard struggling to hold more numbers. I expect Djoko to come out on top in 5 tight sets. This will put a lot of miles on his body in the fortnight ahead of the final.
Rafa-Someone else (Ferrer)
Rafa most likely won't be tested until the semis and here this could be a cake walk for him as well. If Ferrer does make it out of his quarter, then I do expect a tight match at the beginning, but Rafa imposing himself on David at the end. It is Roland Garros, on the French clay, and with Rafa seeking his 7th. There might not be anything that can stop him.The Finals
Djokovic-Rafa
Djokovic should be tested over and over in the fortnight before the final. After so many matches, sets, and games, I can't see him having enough to beat Rafa who should have an easy path to the finals. I expect the most lopsided margin out of their 32 matches. Rafa, with little struggle, will be the French Open Champ for the 7th straight year, raising the Coupe des Mousquetaires and separating himself from Bjorn Borg's record of six French Opens.
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