Enough blue, time for Red Rome! Rome Preview

Can you hear that?  The collective sigh of relief of the ATP tour as the men are back on RED clay!  I think it was a great experiment in Madrid, but significant changes must be made to maintain the clay blue as it was slippery and the ball bounce was low.  Now back to the "real clay" as the Djoker said after his loss last week.  Let's take a look at the top four seeds and their possible path towards the semis and then the finals.

#1 Novak Djokovic

The Djoker couldn't be happier to leave Madrid.  He now enters another Masters in which he was the victor last year.  In 2012, he seems a bit more vulnerable even though he is still playing solid tennis.  Let's take a look at the possible bumps on the road to the semis.

Bernard Tomic
This Aussie is a tough out.  Some days he can really be a threat for an upset, but others he can be very quiet and just be a punching bag.  Expect Tomic to give Nole a challenge, but I do see the Serb #1 moving on in straights.

Juan Monaco
Monaco has had a solid year winning  Viña del Mar and  Houston.  He has reached his highest ranking ever of 14, but has encountered the Djoker this year.  Nole took Monaco to the woodshed in Miami, beating him in straights and taking the first set at Love.  Djokovic has a 5-0 head-to-head record, but they have never played on clay.  I don't see this to be much different and expect an easy victory for Nole moving him to the quarterfinals and his first real test.

Del Potro
Now this is where things really heat up.  Last time these two faced, it cost Serbia a spot in the finals of Davis Cup.  Del Po was one of the only guys to really dent Djokovic last year and will be looking to do the same in Rome.  Del Po has not been able to beat Djokovic on clay in their previous two meetings, but expect a close one here.  I see Nole moving on for the simple fact that he has had a bit more rest then Del Potro.  Pencil him into the Semis.


#2 Rafa Nadal
There's only one thing that the King of Clay has not been able to accomplish, and that's to win on the "blue" stuff.  Rafa is equally as excited to move over to Rome where the surface has changed and so has the elevation.  His ball will now have the heavy property and will stay on the court a lot better than it did in Madrid; WATCH OUT competition, here comes an angry bull!

Baghdatis
1-7 head-to-head against Rafa.  Can we just say "NEXT"?!

Berdych
Now this Czech is HOT!  He is coming off a solid Madrid tournament where he was close to taking out Roger Federer.  On his road to the Final, Berdych surrendered only 2 games to Monfils and took out Del Potro.  Look for a competitive match, but expect Rafa to move on as he has never lost to Berdych on clay.


#3 Roger Federer
Arguably the hottest player in 2012.  He has won 3 titles and only lost 3 matches.  After a win in Madrid, Federer will be looking to tune up his game a bit more before another French Open where he will have his sights on Rafa.

Monfils
With a 1-6 head-to-head record and Monfils coming off injury, along with not playing well in Madrid, I expect this to be a good tune up for Federer into his Round of 16 match.

Isner
Now you know Federer has been licking his chops when the possibility of this match up came up.  They have played once since Big John beat Federer in his home country of Switzerland in Davis Cup, but it was on a hard court at Indian Wells.  Even though it was sweet revenge for Federer, I see him really wanting to beat John on clay.  This should be a tight one throughout, as Isner makes it tough for anyone with his serve, but expect Fed to figure out the big serve and win in two tight sets.


#4 Andy Murray

Andy has had a rough clay patch, including an injury before Madrid, but will be looking to come out and play much better.  He does have a tough draw and may get upset earlier than what most think.  Tough right before the French starts in a couple of weeks.

Nalbadian
This Argentine is a tough 1st match for anyone on tour.  For Andy, it has been tough, but he has won the last four.  The beat down he got from David the last 3 sets in his own backyard of Wimbledon in 2004 still have to drive him to beat the Argentine every time they play.  Expect Murray to advance in a very tightly contested match.

Melzer, Gasquet
The opponent here is in the air, as both of these boys can easily easily beat each other and play Andy in the Round of 16.  If it is Melzer expect a good tune up for Murray as he is 5-0 career against the Austrian.  If the Musketeer comes out of that match to play Murray, that can be a battle as it is a tight 3-2 head-to-head for Murray.  Still expect Andy to come out of his fist two matches to play David Ferrer in the quarters.

Ferrer
Now here is where I am picking the fist upset of the tournament, but I don't know if I can call it that.  David Ferrer as I mentioned earlier is one of the four toughest outs on the ATP tour and has been a pest to Murray ever since their fist meeting in 2006.  Andy does have a 5-4 head-to-head record, but these two things are stacked against him.

1) David Ferrer won the last time they played
2) Andy has never won in three clay matches against Ferrer

Expect a good match, but don't expect the result most people have on their draw.  David Ferrer, the hardest working player on tour, will come out of this one.

Semifinals
Nadal vs Ferrer
Ferrer will be coming off a battle against Andy Murray.  He will be tired, but it won't slow him down much.  No matter if he is 100% or not, expect David to come out blazing, but with a 4-14 head-to-head against Rafa, and the fact that he hasn't beaten Nadal since 2004 in on clay at Stuttgart you should expect Rafa to advance, but it will be tight.

Djokovic vs Federer
We have been teased with this match up ever since the Australian Open.  If Fed would have beaten Rafa, we could have seen these two play in the finals.  At Indian Wells, Isner took care of Djokovic, nullifying the match up in the finals.  At Madrid, fellow Serb, Janko Tipsaravic beat Djokovic not allowing the Fed-Djoko semi.  Expect it here!  I don't see anyone in the draw that can slow down these two trains on a collision course towards each other.  The last time Fed and Djoko played on clay, it was a memorable win for Federer at the French beating the once unbeatable Nole.  Expect the same result here at Rome with the 2011 champ going down.  Fed is looking to take the #1's crown and he will take a big step here.

Finals
Federer vs Nadal
Now talk about a juicy final.  Subplots on top of subplots. Go ahead and pick one!

1) Federer is the new world #2
When was the last time Rafa was #3 in the ranking? May 10th 2010 to be exact and that was coming off an injured knee.  Before that it was July 18th 2005.  WOW!

2) Nadal wants to go into Roland Garros winning more clay tournaments in 2012 then Roger
If Roger wins the title, he will have 2 along with Rafa going into Roland Garros

3) Both men are stuck at 20 Masters titles; an ATP record
This race keeps changing hands and it just keeps getting hotter

4) Federer has NEVER won this event
How often can you say that?!

5) Federer is looking to catch Djokovic
He needs more points to get closer to the Serb in the race to #1

6) Nadal is looking to show the world he still dominates Federer
Can you imagine a victory by Federer on clay and also winning 3 of the last 4 against Rafa?!  What would the world say?

Pick your subplot on this one, because this final will be LOADED with them.  I do think Rafa will be too much for Fed at this point with Federer playing more matches in the last two weeks and Rafa getting some rest after his early exit in Madrid.  It will be a tight final, but I pick Rafa in 3 sets.